Erdogan’s warm ties with Trump offer Turkey an edge ahead of NATO summit

President Donald Trump has criticized many European counterparts expected to attend next week’s NATO summit in Turkey. But host Recep Tayyip Erdogan has relied on his close ties with the U.S. leader to secure Trump’s presence at the Ankara event, an appearance that could even involve a significant gift tied to Turkish defense.

“I would not have gone for most people,” Trump said last week. “But he called me up. He said: ‘Please, I have it in Turkey. You got to be there. The United States has to be in there.’ And so I’m going out of respect to President Erdogan.”

Using that respect has helped Erdogan avoid the disruption that Trump’s absence could cause in the alliance, particularly amid threats by the Republican president to pull U.S. forces from Europe and reduce America’s role in NATO, unsettling allies.

Trump, who has praised Erdogan often and called him a “hell of a leader,” has long challenged other NATO countries over defense spending. He said last year’s pledge to collectively increase it was a major personal win. More recently, he has clashed with alliance members for not supporting his war against Iran.

For Erdogan, Trump may have sweetened the deal by hinting that he could make news during his visit related to jet engines and possible F-35 fighter jet sales that have been blocked for years due to Turkey’s closeness to Moscow.

Trump’s attraction to strongman leaders has long made him an admirer of Erdogan, who built power in Turkey as prime minister and is now in his 13th year as president.

“His relationship with Erdogan, which is pretty strong, is consistent with what seems to be a pattern of his preference,” said Philip Gordon, who served as national security adviser for Vice President Kamala Harris. “It has often been pointed out he seems to have better relationships with adversaries and autocrats, and he certainly says nicer things about them than with allies.”

Gordon, now at the Brookings Institution, added: “Erdogan is taking full advantage of it.”

Erdogan snubbed Biden but bets on Trump

Trump, expected to hold a bilateral meeting with Erdogan on the sidelines of the NATO summit, will be the first U.S. president to visit Turkey since Democrat Barack Obama in 2015. In contrast, Democratic President Joe Biden kept Erdogan at arm’s length over Turkey’s democratic backsliding and close ties to Russia.

Opposition parties and human rights organizations accuse Erdogan of undermining democracy and restricting freedom of expression. They say investigations and prosecutions of human rights activists, journalists, opposition politicians, and others remain a persistent problem in Turkey.

Soner Cagaptay of the Washington Institute said Erdogan and Trump “clicked” personally during Trump’s first term. When Biden extended an invitation in 2024 for Erdogan to visit the U.S. after Turkey endorsed NATO membership for Finland and Sweden, Erdogan declined.

“That was Erdogan’s way of signaling to Trump, ‘Hey, you are going to probably win the elections,’” Cagaptay said. “I think Trump saw that as a giant gesture.”

Trump signals steps toward jet sales for Turkey

During a meeting with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte last week, a reporter asked Trump whether he was bringing “a big gift bag for Erdogan” on the trip, noting that Ankara wants F-110 jet engines and F-35 fighter jets.

“Yeah, I think so,” Trump responded. “Yeah, I’m going to probably do something that’s going to make him very happy.” Trump had also suggested in September that the U.S. could soon begin selling F-35s to Turkey.

Turkey was barred from the program in 2019 after it bought Russian-made S-400 missile defense systems. U.S. officials have feared that Turkey’s use of the Russian system could allow Moscow to gather information about the F-35’s capabilities.

At the Oval Office meeting, Vice President JD Vance said Washington is exploring ways to sell the jets to Turkey, emphasizing that any sale would ensure Turkey complied with U.S. law. There is significant bipartisan opposition in Congress, including from influential Republicans such as Sen. Jim Risch of Idaho, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, to selling the F-35s to Turkey while Ankara retains the Russian missile defense systems.

Meanwhile, the F-110 jet engines Turkey seeks to buy would power its domestically produced KAAN fighter jets. The State Department last week took a step toward making those sales by sending key lawmakers a notice that it planned to bypass congressional opposition to more than $700 million of the jet engine sales to Ankara, according to two people granted anonymity to discuss details of a nonpublic notification.

“In this case, the State Department did not even attempt to justify its decision,” New York Rep. Gregory Meeks, the top Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said in a statement last week. “It did not invoke any emergency authority, did not present a written rationale, and for months refused to make a good-faith effort to brief me on implications of the sale for the U.S.-Turkey relationship, Turkey’s continued possession of the Russian S-400 system, and other regional security concerns.”

The U.S.-Turkey relationship is also thawing in other ways. Earlier this year, Trump’s Department of Justice dropped a major case against Turkey’s state-owned Halkbank, accused of helping Iran evade U.S. sanctions.

Erdogan lauds Trump’s friendship and phone calls

After returning to the White House for his second term, Trump appointed a close friend as ambassador to Turkey: Tom Barrack, a longtime ally who also chaired the committee for Trump’s inauguration. “Barrack is playing a crucial role as a facilitator in the relationship,” said Ahmet Kasim Han, a professor of international relations at Ankara’s TED University.

Erdogan and Trump have frequently held phone calls to discuss Syria, Gaza, and the wider Middle East, and Turkey joined Trump’s Board of Peace aimed at overseeing the ceasefire in Gaza. Trump said this month that he asked Erdogan to stay out of the war in Iran and that Erdogan complied, though there is no indication Turkey had intended to get involved.

Trump expressed admiration for Erdogan even while standing beside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at a joint news conference last year. Netanyahu’s government was at odds with Ankara and had hoped to win Trump’s support for pushing back on Turkish influence in Syria, but instead found himself watching Trump praise Erdogan and urge Netanyahu to be “reasonable.”

After meeting with Trump at the NATO summit in The Hague last year, Erdogan told reporters that Trump is quick to return calls, illustrating their close ties.

“With my friend Trump, we are opening the door to a new era in Turkish-American relations,” Erdogan said. “The process of telephone diplomacy between us has never exceeded 24 hours so far. When we call, the other side responds within 24 hours.”